The End of The World
I’ve just finished “The End of the World Is Just the Beginning, Mapping the Collapse of Globalization” by Peter Zeihan, which is apparently a gateway book to doomerism. The basic concept is that that most countries are about to suffer deindustrialization due to two causes: “The Order” which is the post WW2 period of American domination coming to an end, and that industrialization has led people to move to cities and quit having children, leading to demographic collapse.
“We have been living in a perfect moment. And it is passing.” (p. 1)
Zeihan goes so far as to say (in his talks, on YouTube) “If you’re buying the new iPhone, you better buy two, as it’s going to be the last model for a while.” He expects that these twin forces of Order and demographic collapse will cause massive upheaval by 2030.
This sounds pretty bad. Deindustrialization will lead to re-shoring of manufacturing as countries try to build all that they need without relying on the container ships which will stop arriving. Agriculture will turn back to wheat and rice as everyone tries to grow enough calories to survive. Everything will become more expensive and many things just won’t exist.
But like all “End of the World” books, he is hurt by providing a timeline, 2020 - 2030. “The 2020s are the decade when it all breaks apart.” (p. 60) He says that 2019 will be the best year the world will see for awhile, but now in 2025 we have recovered from Covid, and are still slouching towards the future. The worst situation he mentions is Kazakstani oil. The Kazakstan oil deposit of Kashagan has the worst operating conditions (ice, wind, icy wind), the most difficult technical conditions (varying pressure in its vertical deposit), and then a long and treacherous export route by pipe, then onto small tankers through the Suez Canal, then onto supertankers to sail 8,000 miles to Japan. This route sends the oil by many neighbors, none of whom get along. His point is that it will not last. The technical challenge and the extremely long route to market of Kazakstani oil is only possible under the Order. He completes this by saying that “Kashagan’s half a million barrels of daily output is obviously not long for this world.” But Kashagan’s production continues. If we take the Kashagan oil exports as the canary in the coal mine for when the Order collapses, then in 2025 it is still going strong.
Take it with a grain of salt.
The Collapse of The Order
“At the end of World War II, the Americans created history’s greatest military alliance to arrest, contain, and beat back the Soviet Union…this alliance was only half the plan. In order to cement their new coalition, the Americans also fostered an environment of global security so that any partner could go anywhere, anytime, interface with anyone, in any economic manner, participate in any supply chain and access any material input– all without needing a military escort.” (p. 2)
Globalization.
Globalization has many critics in the U.S. as it is seen as moving jobs from the U.S. overseas, described by Ross Perot’s “giant sucking sound” as jobs move to Mexico. Zeihan says this was always the plan. “The entire concept of the Order is that the United States disadvantages itself economically in order to purchase the loyalty of a global alliance.” “The past several decades haven’t been an American Century. They’ve been an American sacrifice. Which is over. With the American withdrawal, the various structural, strategic, and economic factors that have artificially propped up the entire Asian and European systems are ending. What consumption remains is concentrated in North America.” “The real, actual American Century is only now beginning.” (p. 366-367)
“Globalization was always dependent upon the American’s commitment to the global Order and that Order hasn’t served American’s strategic interests since the Berlin Wall fell in 1989.” (p. 55)
Now thirty years after the end of the Cold War, the Americans have gone home.
Demographic Collapse
For demographic collapse, under industrialization people move to cities, and then “much of the economic growth comes from a swelling population” as “lower mortality increases the population to such a degree it overwhelms any impact from a decline in birth rates… but only for a few decades.” (p. 56) Once again, the 2020s are when the effects of the reduced birth rate will catch up to us. Again North America is spared the worst, as Mexico still has a strong birth rate.
So what?
This all sounds bad unless you’re American; Zeihan predicts that North America will be largely spared, as we can grow our own food, and as Mexico is still having babies. North America doesn’t need to import things to survive. If you’re not in North America, Zeihan recommends France.
All in all “The End of the World” does a good job of describing how the collapse will look based on the geography of nations. It says, “Here are the fault lines where the cookie will break when it crumbles.” But we’re halfway through the 2020s and so far it’s not happening. So we can watch oil exports from Kazakstan, and wait for the next cataclysmic prediction.